2,516 of 2,516
real offers accepted, 504 of them €10
Models accepted all 2,516 real offers, even those under their stated minimum
Asked in advance, the 21 model routes named high minimums, €48 from a person and €63 from an AI; shown a real offer, they accepted every one, including all 504 offers of €10.
What is newA stated minimum is meant to predict what gets refused. For models it predicts nothing: they state a high floor and then take anything, a gap between stated policy and action that matters for any agent negotiating for you.
The setup
First, each model was asked the lowest offer it would accept. Separately, in fresh conversations, it was shown a real offer of €10, €20, €30, €40 or €50 and asked to accept or refuse. Refusing leaves both sides with nothing.
Models named a high floor, then accepted every real offer
Offer out of €100
2,516of 2,516 real offers accepted, 504 of them €10
People state 20 to 30% · offers under 20% are rejected about half the time · Camerer 2003 · 21 model routes
Asked in advance, the average stated minimum was €48 from a person and €63 from an AI. Shown real offers of €10 to €50, the models accepted 2,516 of 2,516, including 504 offers of €10. People state minimums of 20 to 30%.
2,516 of 2,516 real offers accepted, 504 of them €10.
Compared with people
People state minimums of 20 to 30% and offers under 20% are rejected about half the time. Models stated a minimum of 48% toward a person, above it; refused 0 of 2,516 real offers. Camerer 2003
What it means
A walk away price an agent states may change once a real offer arrives. If a limit matters, something outside the agent has to enforce it.
Effect
Stated minimum toward a person €48 (95% CI €37 to €58, over 21 model routes). Accepted 2,516 of 2,516 real offers (95% CI 99.8% to 100%).
€48
stated minimums toward a person
n 753
€63
stated minimums toward an AI
n 756
2,516
real offers shown
n 2,516
In their words
“Accepting gives Jamie €10, while refusing leaves the landlord with the whole €100 and Jamie with nothing, so accepting is the better outcome for Jamie.”
Claude Haiku 5.5 · shown a real offer · to a person · offered €10, accepted · via OpenCode
Limits
- The stated minimum and the real offer were asked in separate conversations, so no model saw its own earlier answer.
- We did not test repeated play.
DataThe values behind the chart, the chart in words and the CSV.
Data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Stated minimum, from a person | €48 |
| Real offers accepted | 2,516 of 2,516 |
| Real offers shown | €10, €20, €30, €40, €50 |
| People, stated minimum: 20 to 30% | 20 to 30% |
Chart in words
Asked in advance, the models said they would refuse offers under €48 from a person. Shown real offers of €10 to €50, they accepted 2,516 of 2,516.
Data (CSV)Range across models21 of 21 model routes accepted every offer they were shown.
21 of 21 model routes accepted every offer they were shown.
Other findings from study 001
Read each study when it is published.
One message per published study. Nothing else.